Thuật ngữ “Acts of God” và Framework P10, P50, P90 có nghĩa là gì trong đề thi PMI-RMP

P90 does not mean that the estimate has a 90% chance of occurring – that is a very different concept.  The central limit theorem indicates that the P50 estimate has more chance of occurring than the P90 and P10 estimates.

P10/50/90 framework is used to model uncertainty. Conceptually,

• The P10 is the lowest value that the expert thinks that the uncertain variable could be.
• The P50 is the most likely value.
• The P90 is the highest value that the expert thinks the variable could be.
• Room is left below the P10 and above the P90 for highly unlikely scenarios, such as “Acts of God.”

Conceptually, the P10 is the lowest value that the expert thinks that the uncertain variable could be. The P50 is the most likely value. The P90 is the highest value that the expert thinks the variable could be. Room is left below the P10 and above the P90 for highly unlikely scenarios, such as “Acts of God.”

#PS339 – A common method for defining uncertain variables is to use the P10/50/90 framework. It is conveniently simple when eliciting information from subject matter experts. What is not a true statement about this framework.

A. The P90 is the highest value that the expert thinks the variable could be.

B. The P10 and above the P90 are left for highly unlikely scenarios, such as “Acts of God.

C. P90 means that the estimate has a 90% chance of occurring.

D. The P50 is the most likely value.