common probability distribution

Công cụ quản lý dự án Data Gathering & Representation Techniques trong PMP là gì?

 

Công cụ này sử dụng trong quy trình:  11.4

Interviewing. Interviewing techniques draw on experience and historical data to quantify the probability and impact of risks on project objectives. The information needed depends upon the type of probability distributions that will be used. For instance, information would be gathered on the optimistic (low), pessimistic (high), and most likely scenarios for some commonly used distributions. Examples of three- point estimates for cost are shown in Figure. Additional information on three-point estimates appears in Estimate Activity Durations and Estimate Costs. Documenting the rationale of the risk ranges and the assumptions behind them are important components of the risk interview because they can provide insight on the reliability and credibility of the analysis.

range of project cost estimate

Probability distributions. Continuous probability distributions, which are used extensively in modeling and simulation, represent the uncertainty in values such as durations of schedule activities and costs of project components. Discrete distributions can be used to represent uncertain events, such as the outcome of a test or a possible scenario in a decision tree. Two examples of widely used continuous distributions are shown in Figure 11-14. These distributions depict shapes that are compatible with the data typically developed during the quantitative risk analysis. Uniform distributions can be used if there is no obvious value that is more likely than any other between specified high and low bounds, such as in the early concept stage of design.

common probability distribution

Trích PMBOK

 

 

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