Công cụ quản lý dự án Modeling Techniques trong PMP là gì?
Examples of modeling techniques include, but are not limited to:
- What-if Scenario Analysis: is the process of evaluating scenarios in order to predict their effect, positively or negatively, on project objectives. This is an analysis of the question, “What if the situation represented by scenario ‘X’ happens?” A schedule network analysis is performed using the schedule to compute the different scenarios, such as delaying a major component delivery, extending specific engineering durations, or introducing external factors, such as a strike or a change in the permitting process. The outcome of the what-if scenario analysis can be used to assess the feasibility of the project schedule under adverse conditions, and in preparing contingency and response plans to overcome or mitigate the impact of unexpected situations.
- Simulation: involves calculating multiple project durations with different sets of activity assumptions, usually using probability distributions constructed from the three-point estimates to account for uncertainty. The most common simulation technique is Monte Carlo analysis, in which a distribution of possible activity durations is defined for each activity and used to calculate a distribution of possible outcomes for the total project.