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Công cụ quản lý dự án Quantitative Risk Analysis & Modeling Techniques trong PMP là gì?


Công cụ này sử dụng trong quy trình:  11.4

Commonly used techniques use both event-oriented and project-oriented analysis approaches, including:

  • Sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It helps to understand how the variations in project’s objectives correlate with variations in different uncertainties. Conversely, it examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being studied when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values. One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram (Figure 11-15), which is useful for comparing relative importance and impact of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. The Tornado diagram is also helpful in analyzing risk-taking scenarios enabled on specific risks whose quantitative analysis highlights possible benefits greater than corresponding identified negative impacts. A tornado diagram is a special type of bar chart used in sensitivity analysis for comparing the relative importance of the variables. In a tornado diagram, the Y-axis contains each type of uncertainty at base values, and the X-axis contains the spread or correlation of the uncertainty to the studied output. In this figure, each uncertainty contains a horizontal bar and is ordered vertically to show uncertainties with a decreasing spread from the base values.

tornado diagram

  • Expected monetary value analysis. Expected monetary value (EMV) analysis is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen (i.e., analysis under uncertainty). The EMV of opportunities are generally expressed as positive values, while those of threats are expressed as negative values. EMV requires a risk-neutral assumption— neither risk averse nor risk seeking. EMV for a project is calculated by multiplying the value of each possible outcome by its probability of occurrence and adding the products together. A common use of this type of analysis is a decision tree analysis (Figure 11-16).

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  • Modeling and simulation. A project simulation uses a model that translates the specified detailed uncertainties of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. Simulations are typically performed using the Monte Carlo technique. In a simulation, the project model is computed many times (iterated), with the input values (e.g., cost estimates or activity durations) chosen at random for each iteration from the probability distributions of these variables. A histogram (e.g., total cost or completion date) is calculated from the iterations. For a cost risk analysis, a simulation uses cost estimates. For a schedule risk analysis, the schedule network diagram and duration estimates are used. The output from a cost risk simulation using the three-element model and risk ranges is shown in Figure 11-17. It illustrates the respective probability of achieving specific cost targets. Similar curves can be developed for other project objectives

cost risk simulation results




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